THE HEADLINE RECORD
14,821 graded picks, 4 October 2025 to 21 September 2026.
Across nine sports the record holds 10,771 wins against 3,961 losses — a 73.11% hit rate at average odds of 1.85 (-117). Staking one flat unit on every selection at the price recorded with it returns a modelled +32.94%, or +4,881.81 net units.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Graded picks | 14,821 |
| Wins and losses | 10,771 and 3,961 |
| Hit rate | 73.11% |
| Modelled flat-stake ROI | +32.94% |
| Modelled net units | +4,881.81 |
| Average price | 1.85 (-117) |
| Most common price | 1.91 (-110) |
| Published selections | 15,650 |
HOW TO READ THESE NUMBERS
What is counted, and what modelled means.
Graded means the event finished and the selection settled as a win, a loss or a push. The hit rate is wins as a share of wins plus losses; pushes and selections that returned no result are excluded from it rather than counted as wins.
Modelled returns assume one flat unit staked on every published selection at the price recorded with it. That is a return on the published record, not realised profit and loss: it assumes every selection was taken, at that price, with no staking plan, no line shopping and no account limits. A bettor following the same selections would not reproduce it exactly.
The two breakdowns below are independent cuts of the same 14,821 graded picks — by sport and by odds band — and each sums to that total.
SPORT PERFORMANCE
Hit rate by sport.
Soccer, NHL, NBA, MLB account for 94.4% of graded picks. Each of those four carries more than 2,000 graded selections, pairing volume with hit rates from 72.1% to 78.4%.
| Sport | Graded | Hit rate | Avg price (EU) | Avg price (US) | Modelled ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soccer | 6,294 | 70.7% | 1.85 | -118 | +29.2% |
| NHL | 3,583 | 73.6% | 1.86 | -116 | +34.2% |
| NBA | 2,102 | 78.4% | 1.92 | -108 | +47.3% |
| MLB | 2,005 | 72.1% | 1.76 | -132 | +24.1% |
| Tennis | 282 | 88.8% | 1.86 | -116 | +61.8% |
| NFL | 231 | 69.1% | 1.78 | -129 | +19.4% |
| UFC | 178 | 73.7% | 1.87 | -115 | +28.1% |
| College football | 90 | 80% | 1.72 | -139 | +29.6% |
| Golf | 56 | 76.8% | 3.35 | +235 | +85% |
Soccer contributes the largest share of the modelled return at +1,834.87 net units, on the back of 6,294 graded selections. The smaller sports — tennis, UFC, college football and golf — carry between 56 and 282 graded picks each, so their rates move a long way on a handful of results and should be read as indicative rather than settled.
Coverage by competition is listed on the coverage index, and the methodology sets out the checks a selection passes before it is published.
RETURNS BY ODDS
Where the units accrue.
The record is concentrated around even money. The 1.90 to 2.09 band alone holds 4,823 graded picks and +2,015.4 net units — 41.3% of the total modelled return.
| European | American | Graded | Hit rate | Implied | Modelled net units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | Below -333 | 274 | 82.8% | 82% | +3.0 |
| 1.30 to 1.49 | -333 to -204 | 1,369 | 80.8% | 71.5% | +177.3 |
| 1.50 to 1.69 | -200 to -145 | 2,695 | 78.7% | 62.6% | +692.8 |
| 1.70 to 1.89 | -143 to -112 | 3,928 | 74% | 55.5% | +1,300.1 |
| 1.90 to 2.09 | -111 to +109 | 4,823 | 72.6% | 51.1% | +2,015.4 |
| 2.10 to 2.49 | +110 to +149 | 1,224 | 58.9% | 44.7% | +376.0 |
| 2.50 and up | +150 and up | 508 | 50.4% | 34.8% | +317.2 |
The implied column is the probability each price carries before margin, so the gap between it and the hit rate is what the modelled return is built on. That gap is widest in the shorter bands and narrows as prices lengthen: at 2.50 and up the record hits 50.4% against 34.8% implied.
PRICES
The prices the record carries most often.
Standard vig at 1.91 (-110) accounts for 1,985 graded picks on its own — a 74.1% hit rate and +821.88 modelled net units.
| European | American | Graded picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.91 | -110 | 1,985 | 74.1% |
| 1.80 | -125 | 252 | 74.7% |
| 1.83 | -120 | 238 | 76.1% |
| 1.85 | -118 | 238 | 70.6% |
| 1.82 | -122 | 226 | 76.1% |
| 1.87 | -115 | 225 | 63.1% |
| 1.88 | -114 | 222 | 69.2% |
| 1.81 | -123 | 213 | 72.2% |
To convert a price yourself, or to read the margin a market carries, use the free odds and margin calculator.
FULL COMPOSITION
Every selection in the published record.
The record holds 15,650 published selections. Not all of them grade: events are postponed, markets are voided and some selections are still open at the date of the report.
| Outcome | Selections |
|---|---|
| Wins | 10,771 |
| Losses | 3,961 |
| No result | 651 |
| Pending | 267 |
| Total published record | 15,650 |
Licensed records carry the same lifecycle: every pick moves from upcoming to settled with a result and a settlement time, so a licensee can rebuild this table from the data they receive. The field dictionary lists the fields involved, and the betting tips feed guide covers how they arrive.
FAQ
Track record: common questions.
What period does the track record cover?
4 October 2025 to 21 September 2026. Every figure on this page is drawn from that window and is not updated selection by selection; the report is reissued rather than edited in place.
What counts as a graded pick?
A published selection whose event has finished and which settled as a win, a loss or a push. The record holds 15,650 published selections in total, of which 14,821 are graded; the rest are pending or returned no result.
How is the hit rate calculated?
Wins as a share of wins plus losses — 10,771 and 3,961 respectively. Pushes and selections that returned no result are excluded from the rate rather than counted as wins.
What does modelled ROI mean?
One flat unit staked on every published selection at the price recorded with it. It is a modelled return on the published record, not realised profit and loss: it assumes every selection was taken, at that price, with no staking plan, no line shopping and no account limits.
Does past performance predict future results?
No. A record describes what has already settled. It does not forecast the next selection, and no probability published with a pick guarantees an outcome.
Can we verify these figures against the feed?
Yes. Every licensed record carries its market, selection, price, model probability and settled result, so a licensee can rebuild the record from the data they receive and grade it against their own settlement source.